Chapter 16 — Expectation, Bias, and Preference

Expectation, bias, and preference appear to be different.

In the STLR proposal, however, all three are influenced by what already exists in the brain before a new Signal arrives.

Some Tags may already be active.

Some Tags may have strong Hard-Links to particular memories, meanings, or results.

The current situation may therefore activate some possibilities more strongly than others.

Expectation

Suppose you are waiting for a friend at a coffee shop.

Before your friend arrives, Tags related to your friend may already be active:

• your friend’s face
• the expected arrival time
• the clothes your friend usually wears
• the direction from which your friend may arrive

Your brain does not need to search through everything you know whenever someone enters the coffee shop.

The expected Tags are already active and ready to be matched with new Signals.

Expectation is the activation of Tags representing what is likely to happen next.

If your friend enters through the expected door, the incoming Signals match the active Tags. You recognize your friend quickly.

If your friend suddenly speaks from behind you, the Signals do not match the expectation. The mismatch attracts attention and may create surprise.

Expectation can therefore affect both recognition and attention.

Expectation Changes What We Notice

Consider your kitchen.

You expect the refrigerator, table, and other objects to be in their usual places. You normally do not examine every object when you enter.

Now imagine that someone moves the refrigerator to the other side of the kitchen.

You would probably notice it immediately.

The refrigerator is familiar. What attracts attention is the difference between the current Signals and the expected arrangement.

A strong Signal can attract attention, but a mismatch between an incoming Signal and an expectation can also attract attention.

Bias

Expectation usually concerns what may happen.

Bias affects how something is interpreted.

Suppose two people hear the same statement from the same speaker.

One person has positive Tags connected with the speaker. The other person has negative Tags connected with the speaker.

The spoken Signals are the same, but the existing Tags and Hard-Links in the two brains are different.

The statement may therefore Reference different memories, meanings, and expectations in each person.

One person may interpret the statement as helpful. The other may interpret it as insulting or dishonest.

Bias is the influence of existing Tags, Hard-Links, and current activation on the interpretation of new Signals.

Bias does not always involve a deliberate decision to distort information.

A new Signal never enters an empty brain. It enters a brain containing a lifetime of learned Tags, Hard-Links, memories, and expectations.

Expectation Can Become Bias

Expectation and bias can overlap.

Suppose you expect someone to behave badly.

Before the person does anything, negative Tags related to that person may already be active.

The person then makes an ambiguous statement.

Because the negative Tags are already active, the statement may be interpreted negatively. That interpretation can then strengthen the original expectation.

Past experience → expectation → interpretation → strengthened expectation

The same process can also occur with positive expectations.

This does not mean that every interpretation is equally correct. Evidence and reasoning can still be used to examine it.

STLR only proposes a way to explain why previous experience may influence the interpretation that appears first.

Preference

Preference concerns which choice or result is more desirable.

Suppose you like Japanese food.

The Tag for Japanese food may be Hard-Linked to:

• enjoyable tastes
• familiar smells
• pleasant restaurants
• time spent with family or friends
• favorite dishes
• other positive memories

When choosing what to eat, Japanese food activates more desirable content than another choice.

Preference occurs when one choice activates more desirable expected results, stronger positive associations, or weaker negative associations than competing choices.

Preference does not always require a conscious comparison.

You may simply think: I want Japanese food.

But that choice may depend on many Tags and Hard-Links formed through earlier experiences.

Preference Can Change

Preferences are not necessarily permanent.

Suppose you have enjoyed a restaurant for many years. The restaurant is connected with many positive Tags.

You then have several bad experiences there.

Those experiences form new Tags and Hard-Links. Thinking about the restaurant may begin activating disappointment instead of pleasure.

Your preference may change as the content connected with the restaurant changes.

Continued learning can therefore change expectation, bias, and preference.

Why People Respond Differently

Two people can receive similar Signals and still reach different conclusions or make different choices.

They have different memories, knowledge, values, moods, expectations, and preferences.

The same Signal therefore enters two different collections of Tags and Hard-Links.

Different Tags become active. Different knowledge islands are Referenced. Different interpretations or choices may result.

One Related STLR Explanation

Expectation, bias, and preference do not need to be identical. Each describes a different result:

• Expectation activates what is likely to happen.
• Bias influences how incoming Signals are interpreted.
• Preference favors the result that appears more desirable.

However, all three depend partly on content that already exists before the next Signal is processed.

The brain does not process every new Signal from the beginning.

It processes the Signal in the presence of existing Tags, Hard-Links, memories, and currently active content.

STLR does not claim that expectation, bias, and preference are biologically implemented in exactly this way.

It proposes that their observable effects may be described through stored Tags, learned Hard-Links, current activation, and Reference.